Friday, April 9, 2010

Money Market Rates 4/10

Here are the latest money market interest rates of the banks that I've been tracking on my blog. Note that these rates are sorted by APY, and represent institutions that I have accounts at, or have otherwise mentioned in my blog:

1.35% Discover Bank Online Savings
1.29% Ally Bank Online Savings
1.10% HSBCAdvance Online Savings
1.10% ING Direct Orange Savings
1.07% Shorebank Direct Online Savings
0.90% Citibank Ultimate Savings
0.65% Western FCU Money Market
0.50% Chase Premier Savings
0.40% E*TRADE Complete Savings
0.06% PayPal Money Market*

NOTES: *The PayPal Money Market fund is NOT FDIC insured.
Rates are believed to be accurate as of 4/8/10. I did not include banks that had special, or introductory rates in the list because they are not ongoing interest rates. I am also not including non-liquid accounts such as CD's in the list.

This month, I have added Discover Bank Online Savings to the list, which currently has the highest interest rate of the banks that I'm tracking. The latest bank casualty in my list of banks is Umbrellabank, which was a division of New South Federal Savings Bank. New South was closed by the FDIC in December, and the assets were transferred to Beal Bank. I will stop tracking the Pot O' Gold Money Market here.

So, there is the latest list. Please let me know if you know of any higher interest rates.

DC

Monday, April 5, 2010

Two Week Free Trial of MarketClub

I hesitate to recommend a product on PFStock unless I feel that it is really worthwhile. MarketClub from INO.com, which I've mentioned before in my post MarketClub Pays for Itself, is one of those exceptional products. Now for a limited time, MarketClub is offering a 2-week free trial. This is a risk-free way to try out the powerful technical analysis tools at MarketClub -- which have earned my personal recommendation.

I don't know how long they will have this free trial offer available, but MarketClub is regularly priced at $449.00 per year. INO.com (pronounced "I know") normally offers a 30-day risk-free period, but they would ordinarily ask for your credit card number upfront. But, if you Click Here you can sign up for the free trial without giving them your credit card information. Even at full price, I feel that MarketClub is worthwhile because I've made much more than the cost of a subscription using their tools.

Anyway, there are 4 powerful trading tools available to MarketClub members that you, as a free trial member, will have access to: Smart Scan, Trade School, Chart Analysis, and Data Central. You also will have access to numerous videos from Adam Hewison, the creator of MarketClub. One other major bonus about this trial is that their, customer support team will be providing unlimited support! You can call or email MarketClub for an instant response to any question, comment or concern.

DC

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Should You Invest in Gold?

On this blog, I haven't talked much about investing in gold or in precious metals. With the upward trend of gold prices in the last few years, I have started to consider gold as an investment. But, I've been afraid that I might be a little bit late to the party. To give me more to think about, the folks at INO.com (pronounced "I know") recently sent me an Email with a link to their video about the future of gold prices. I thought that it would be useful to re-post their message here.

Note: The views expressed are those of the original author, and do not necessarily reflect those of PFStock.


Why gold will not make new highs or lows this year
by Adam Hewison, INO.com President

Gold has had some dramatic moves in the last eighteen months and we expect it will have some equally dramatic moves in the future, but not right now.

Click Here to see Adam's 4-minute video about gold.

While I recognize that gold is one of the few commodity markets that people are really passionate about; the purpose of this article is not to take sides either with the gold bugs or those who reject the argument that gold is forever. Rather, I want to discuss my interpretation of the markets cycle.

After spot gold made an all-time high against the dollar on December 2 at $1,226.37, gold has been in retreat mode. For the for the past several months gold has been in a broad trading range, seemingly unable to move one way or another. This process has created frustration from bulls and bears alike.

Here is the dirty little secret about the gold market. It can be a horrible investment and here's why:

Gold first started trading in the 80s while I was on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in Chicago as a member of the International Monetary Market, (IMM) which was at that time a division of the CME now the CME Group. When gold opened up the public clamored to buy into the gold futures market and guess who sold it to them? That's right it was the pros- the guys who made their living trading. As a result, gold hit an all-time high of around $850 an ounce back then and it took almost 25 years for gold to move over that level, at least in dollar terms. I don't know what your timeline is, but 25 to 30 years is an awful long time to get even again.

So what is really happening in this market?

Everyone is aware of the problems in Europe with Greece, Portugal and a host of yet to be named countries. We all know that the huge amount of money being printed, coupled with the bank failures abroad contribute to the dollars declining value. These events, in conjunction with the American governments actions, also contribute to the devaluation of the dollar. The government claims that this is beneficial to exports, but the bottom line is that the purchasing power of the American dollar continues to erode in world markets.

Based on the declining value of world currency against gold you might ask- why isn't gold trading at $2,000 or even $3,000 an ounce? What is wrong with this market? This is because a great deal of what goes into the gold market is psychological and reacts to cyclic trends driven by both psychological and economic factors.

So what does all this have to do with the price of gold now? It has everything to do with gold and nothing to do with gold.

Here is what I've been able to observe in the last several years in gold and seems to be holding true. It is something that you should pay attention to if you're interested in the next big move in the gold market.

Before gold can move higher it needs to create what I call an "energy field". The most recent energy fields in gold were between May 12, 2006 and September 20, 2007. This 17 month energy field saw gold prices oscillate between a broad trading range bound by $730.08 (upside) and $541.80 (downside). That energy field produced enough power to propel gold to the new high of $1,012.40 on March 17, 2008. This marked the first time gold exceeded, in dollar terms, the highs set in the early 80s mentioned earlier.

The energy fields I have observed for gold are taking somewhere between 17 and 18 months to complete. If the energy field holds, then the December 3rd 2009 high of $1,226.37 should remain in place for quite some time. If the same cycle remains true then the recent lows that we witnessed, at $1,050, should also remain intact as they represent the 15 to 16 month cycle low.

With the lows in place the next question becomes when is the next cyclical high in gold? Based on the existing cycle, we can expect the next major gold high in 2011.

To summarize: I expect gold to be locked in a broad trading range for the next 12 months bounded by the December 09 highs of 1,226.37 and the lows of $1,050.00. If the gold cycle holds true, we expect that gold tops the $1,226.37 marker by April or May of 2011.

On the upside we will also be looking for gold to make a nature cyclic high in October or November of 2011. It's impossible to predict the future with any degree of accuracy; however when we look at the cycles in gold this reads as a pretty good bet.

No matter what happens we expect gold will offer some great trading opportunities that investors and traders should be able to take advantage of.

Listen to Adam's technical analysis of the gold chart.

As I always discuss- in trading one should approach gold or any other market with a game plan and proper money management stops. The key to success in this decade will be an investors willingness to move in and out of asset classes such as gold and be well diversified into more than one asset class. That way you wont be left holding the bag for the next 25 years. Our World Commodity Portfolio is a good example of this approach and one I believe will serve investors well in the coming years.

--
Adam Hewison is the Co-creator of MarketClub. For a limited time, MarketClub is offering a 2-week free trial. This is a risk-free way to try out the powerful technical analysis tools at MarketClub -- which have earned my personal recommendation. For more information, see my post MarketClub Pays for Itself.

DC

Monday, March 15, 2010

How Much Does A Free TV Set Cost?

A while back, I wrote a post about receiving a free HDTV when I opened a new Certificate of Deposit (CD) account at Irwin Union Bank. Specifically, the offer was made to customers who open an 11-month CD with a minimum deposit of $20,000. At the time, the bank informed me that they would report the value of the free gift ($280) to the IRS (on a 1099 form). Since it was clear that a 1099 form would translate into additional income taxes, I knew that the free TV set was not truly free.

The TV itself is a 22 inch Toshiba model 22AV600U. It is the first HDTV that I've owned, and the picture is quite sharp compared to our old tube TVs. The new TV includes a built-in NTSC/ATSC/clear QAM tuner that can tune into both broadcast TV and cable. (It is an unadvertised fact that cable subscribers who have a clear QAM tuner can often receive unencrypted HD cable TV, without adding "digital" cable to their service.)

Anyway, how much did the "free" TV end up costing me? Our Federal marginal tax rate (aka: tax bracket) is 25%, and our California state tax bracket is 9.55%. So, the TV costs is (25% + 9.55%) * $280 = $96.74. It is not a free TV, but that is still a lot less than the retail price for a new 22" HDTV (typically about $250-300).

I deposited $20,000 in the CD for an 11-month term with an interest rate of 1.96% in July 2009. Then in September 2009, Irwin Union Bank was closed by the FDIC with its accounts and assets transferred to First Financial Bank (of Ohio). Subsequent to the Irwin Union Bank closing, the acquiring bank (First Financial) sent me a letter saying that it reduced my CD interested rate to 1.5% for the remainder of my CD's term. Ironically the FDIC says that this is all perfectly legal. However, they would let me withdraw my money from the CD without any early withdrawal penalty. And I would get to keep the free TV, too.

DC

Monday, March 8, 2010

Fake USB Flash Drives

A while back, I wrote about collecting free promotional USB flash drives at various investment conferences that I've attended. I have been searching the Internet to see if I could also find websites that offer USB flash drives freebies. For reference, a USB (Universal Serial Bus) flash drive is a portable computer memory that plugs into a computer USB port and can be used like a miniature hard disk. Also known as thumb drives, they were once considered a novelty among computer enthusiasts. But nowadays, USB flash drives can often be purchased in many commonplace stores, including drug and discount stores.

Anyway, I did find a few websites that claim to offer USB flash drive freebies. In many cases, the website is outdated, and that particular offer has expired. Among the unexpired offers, I ended up submitting my mailing address and contact information to a few sites. But, I am disappointed to report that I haven't received a free USB flash drive from any of them. Can anybody report on any successes (or failures) that they've had?

In my searches on the web, I did uncover a disturbing trend: fake USB flash memory. To be clear, the flash memory itself is not fake; rather the capacity that the USB device reports to the operating system is fake. For example some people have reported purchasing a 32GB flash drive on eBay that they later found out could only store 4GB of data. To make matter worse when the real capacity of the drive is exceeded it starts to overwrite their existing data. Not surprisingly, when the end user finally realizes that they've been duped, they also learn that the eBay seller has closed shop and doesn't respond to Email messages.

As a technical matter, these unscrupulous sellers are reprogramming the USB controller chip to falsely report the capacity of the flash memory. To help detect this fake flash memory, there is a tool called h2testw that tests your USB flash drive by filling the memory with real data and trying to read back every bit of it. The tool can be be downloaded here: h2testw. This site is written in German. If you can't read it, you can click here for a translation that somewhat resembles English. The tool itself has instructions in both German (liesmich.txt) and English (readme.txt).

There is a website called SOSFakeFlash that contains a lot of helpful information about the problem of fake flash memory. It seems that much of fake flash memory sold on eBay originates from foreign sellers in Asia and Europe. However, there also appear to be domestic (U.S.) sellers who are also getting into the act. Their tactics are similar.

In my experience, I have purchased items on eBay before, such as a used DVD recorder. Regardless of the item, one suggestion that I can offer about buying items on eBay is to avoid sellers that have little feedback history, and are listing a large number of items for sale at once. These sellers are trying to make as many sales as possible before they get caught selling fraudulent goods. If it is a legitimate deal from a legitimate seller, it will still be there in the future. Also, bear in mind that the price of flash memory goes down in time (Moore's Law).

If you are a victim of this scam, I would first suggest contacting the seller. Inform them that you know that they are selling bogus flash memory, and demand a refund. If they don't respond, open a dispute on eBay that the item is not as described (e.g., I paid for a 64GB USB flash drive, but received a 4GB flash drive). I don't recommend that you claim the item is counterfeit because many of the fake flash drives out there are generic and don't represent a particular brand name (e.g., Sandisk, Sony, HP, etc.) If you make a counterfeit claim, eBay may ask for third party verification of the claim which you would have to pay for.

From my standpoint, I am glad that I haven't bought any bogus USB flash drives. All of the flash memory that I do have seems to check out fine when I run the h2testw program. But, I am curious if any of my readers have any experience with this bogus flash memory.

Note: While I was writing this post, I saw a 128GB Kingston DataTraveler 200 USB flash drive offered on eBay at the "Buy It Now" price of only $27. However, Kingston's list price for this item is $547. A few hours later, the seller had racked up hundreds of sales. And shortly after that, the listing and the seller disappeared from eBay... Doesn't that sound suspicious to you?

DC

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Decoding Tax Acronyms

The PR people at TurboTax recently sent me a list of "taxcronyms". Presumably, a taxcronym is a tax acronym that many people are not familiar with. In any case, I found their blog post to contain a lot of useful information, and I have asked for permission to reproduce it on my blog. Note: The views expressed are those of the original blogger, and do not necessarily reflect those of PFStock.


Common and Complex Taxcroynms Decoded
The TurboTax Blog
By Lauren Young, TurboTax Deductionista

Anyone who has ever looked at the tax code knows about the alphabet soup of acronyms associated with taxes. In addition to the big one—IRS a.k.a. Internal Revenue Service—I’m guessing that there are more than 100 taxcronyms out there. Here’s a guide to decoding some common as well as complex tax acronyms.

AGI
Your Adjusted Gross Income is key to figuring out your taxes, but computing it can be tricky. Thankfully, TurboTax takes care of the legwork for you. The AGI includes your income, minus certain deductions such as alimony, interest for student loans and contributions to a retirement account.

AMT
The Alternative Minimum Tax was originally designed to tax the 150 most wealthy Americans back in 1969. But because the AMT was never indexed for inflation, millions of people pay it today. A temporary patch for 2009 returns sets the AMT exemption at $46,700 for single filers and $70,950 for joint filers.

Here’s how I describe the AMT: It’s a bizarre parallel tax universe in which you lose most of your valuable tax deductions, including the standard deduction along with state and local taxes. Overall, some 4 million taxpayers are expected to pay $35.5 billion in AMT in 2009, at an average of about $8,400 each, according to the Tax Policy Center.

It’s pretty hard to avoid the AMT, if you stuck in this tax trap—I know this firsthand. We’ve been paying the AMT for nearly a decade.

EIN
If you work in corporate America , your employer has a nine-digit Employer Identification Number. And this number is key to making online tax filing easy. With this number you can import your employment tax information directly into TurboTax.

EITC
The Earned Income Tax Credit is designed to give the lower-paid workers—I like to refer to them as the worker bees—a chance to lower their taxes or claim a refund. To get the credit, your income cannot exceed $13,440 if you are single and have no children. (The income threshold is $18,440 if you are married and filing with your spouse). If you fit the bill, you are eligible for a $457 credit.

Those little (or not-so-little) bundles of joy living in your home make this tax credit even more valuable. Depending on the number of children you have, the credit increases from $3,043 (one child) to $5,657 (three kids or more), But you cannot earn more than $43,279 if you are single and $48,279 if married and filing jointly with three or more qualifying kids.
Overall, the EITC was responsible for helping Americans realize $49 billion in tax credits in 2008.

FSA
A Flexible Spending Arrangement lets you save pretax money for qualified health-care services every year. They are typically a use-or-lose proposition, though, so it is important to set a careful estimate of your health-related expenses. If you end up with a lot of money left in your FSA at the end of the year, consider donating medical supplies to a local school or clinic.

HSA
As the cost of health insurance continues to climb, more employees are opting for Health Savings Accounts. These high-deductible health plans (HDHP) let employees make contributions to a savings account with pretax dollars. While your employer may or may not contribute to the account, any money you do not use can continue to grow, similar to a retirement savings plan.

For the 2009 tax year, HSA holders can deduct up to $5,950 if the account is for family coverage. And if you are 55 or older, you can add another $1,000.

IRA
An Individual Retirement Arrangement is one of the best—and simplest—ways to save for retirement, especially if you don’t have an employer-sponsored retirement savings plan. Since your savings are tax-deferred, IRAs also help reduce your overall taxable income. If you discover that you have a big tax bill, you may be able to open a traditional IRA for the corresponding tax year to minimize your financial burden. But, like everything related to taxes, there are bells and whistles.

If you are under age 50, the maximum amount you can stash in a traditional IRA for 2009 is $5,000. If you are older than 50, the contribution cap rises to $6,000. But you also have to meet certain income restrictions to get the tax benefit of an IRA. For example, if you are married filing jointly, your modified adjusted gross income must be $89,000 or less to get the maximum deduction.
IRAs come in several distinct flavors: while traditional IRAs help cut your tax bill now, it makes sense for some folks to use Roth IRAs which require you to pay your taxes upfront. In 2010, the once-restrictive rules for Roth eligibility are shifting in a big way. Here’s a rundown of the changes.

MSA
A Medical savings account is mainly used by self-employed folks or employees of small businesses along with their spouses and dependents. They are similar in scope to HSAs–you can accumulate savings for medical expenses tax-free. The money you save is portable if you change employers.

MFJ
Married couples have the option to file their taxes together or separately, but most save thousands of dollars by filing jointly (married filing jointly). That’s because filing separately disqualifies you from some of the most significant tax credits and deductions which include the EITC (above) along with valuable childcare and dependent care deductions.

MFS
While it usually makes sense for married couples to file their taxes together, there are a few exceptions to this rule-of-thumb. You’ll want to use the married filing separate tax status if your spouse is in trouble with the Feds and hasn’t paid taxes in a while. (I actually know a couple who encountered this problem. NOT good.) Married couples should also consider filing separate returns if one of you has a huge tax bill and the other could get a refund. Here’s some more information about marriage and taxes from TurboTax.

SIMPLE
In addition to traditional IRAs and Roth IRAs, there is also the Savings Incentive Match Plan for Employees. SIMPLE IRA plans are a favorite retirement savings vehicle for small businesses (100 employees or less) because they are actually fairly easy to set up. Employees and employers can make contributions to traditional IRAs, although there are limitations.

OIC
The financial crisis has left a lot of taxpayers with big bills and little financing options. An Offer in Compromise is an agreement between a taxpayer and the IRS to settle a taxpayer’s tax debt for less than the full amount owed. But the reduced equity taxpayers have in their real estate holdings may complicate the deal.
To decode more taxcronyms, check out this handy, dandy IRS tip sheet.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Annual Income Survey

In April 2009, I asked my blog readers the question: How much do you make? That is the question that many people have on their mind, but few people are willing to ask. And even fewer are willing to answer... In spite of that, my post invited readers to leave a comment revealing their annual income, as well as their age and occupation. Some readers also state their gender and geographic location.

Very few comments have been entered to date, even though readers can enter anonymous comments on PFStock. However, I recently placed a poll in the sidebar of PFStock that asks the same thing: "How much do you make?" With over 35 votes so far, the response to this poll has been much better than to my post. Here are the latest data from the sidebar poll:

Annual Income of PFStock Readers (as of 2/20/10)

Annual Income Percentage
less than $25k 5%
$25k-$49k 15%
$50k-$74k 5%
$75k-$124k 35%
$125k-$149k 5%
$150k and higher 33%


(Totals do not add up to 100% due to rounding.) These statistics will give you some insight about how your income compares against other PFStock readers. It seems that the median income of my blog readers is about $100k per year. I found it interesting that one in four readers has an income over $150,000. (In fact, this number fluctuated, but is sometimes as high as one-third of all readers making more than $150k.) I wonder how the average income of PFStock readers compares to the readers of other personal finance blogs. Does anybody have any insight on that? I think that I can say that 70% of PFStock readers have an income greater than $75,000 per year.

I was surprised at how willing people were to vote in an anonymous poll. At the same time, my post did not receive such a response. Perhaps people are skeptical that their responses will be kept anonymous. Or maybe they are unwilling to spend a few minutes writing a response, while clicking a button on the poll only takes a few seconds. In any case, I encourage you to participate in the anual income poll in the sidebar, and/or leave a comment here. I want to assure you that my Blogger account does not collect Email addresses or any other personal information, if you select "Anonymous" on the comment form. To be doubly sure, you can also sign out of Blogger.

Over the years, I have found that readers are innately curious about other people's finances. This natural curiosity -- wanting to assess how one is doing compared to others -- has led me to write my most popular post of all time: Net Worth Update. Thousands of readers have seen this post, but again very few comments have been entered. In other words, people want to have a peek at others finances, but very few are willing to reveal any details of their own personal finances.

So, what should my next poll be? A poll about net worth seems to be logical choice. Please see the sidebar to participate in the new poll.

DC

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Tax Tips Software Winner

Congratulation to Stephen Grimes, who is the winner of the H&R Block Giveaway Contest. He will be receiving a copy of H&R Block At Home Deluxe (formerly known as TaxCut) which includes tax preparation for both federal and state returns.

His tax tip was to harvest stock losses, saying "I did this a year ago near market bottom, and I will be deducting $3000 per year off my income tax for five years!!"

Here are some of the other tax tips I've received (as well as some of my own).
  • File your taxes for free online. Many websites offer free online filing if you meet their criteria.
  • Buy a copy of J.K. Lasser's Your Income Tax or the Ernst & Young Tax Guide to help with understanding tax laws and with preparing your taxes. Better yet, check out a copy of either one from your local library for free.
  • Contribute the most you can to a 401(k) plan at work.
  • Read PFStock and other personal finance blogs. (I think that this contributor has his own personal finance blog.)

The contest is over now, but if you have any other good tax or money saving suggestions that you would like to share, I encourage you to leave a comment below.

If you missed out on the H&R Block At Home giveaway, I do have a couple $10 rebate coupons good through 4/15/10. The rebate is good for $10 off of an H&R Block At Home Deluxe or higher purchase from retail stores. If you are interested, Email me your mailing address. I cover the postage to send it to you, but this offer is limited to the first two responses that I get since I only have two coupons.

DC

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Last Chance To Win Tax Software

The deadline to enter the H&R Block Giveaway Contest is approaching. This contest will end on February 12, and the winner will be drawn from among the eligible entries. To recap, the folks at H&R Block have provided me a copy of H&R Block At Home Deluxe (retail value $45) to give away to one of my lucky blog readers. H&R Block At Home was formerly known as TaxCut.

This giveaway is for a new Deluxe (Tax Year 2009) version of H&R Block At Home which includes tax preparation for both Federal & State returns. That should be adequate for most people to complete their own taxes. Although the software includes free federal e-file, you may have to pay extra if you want to also efile a state return.

I am holding a random drawing for the tax software. Based on the current number of entries, your chances of winning are still pretty good. You can enter to win by posting a comment here.

As a reminder, you will need to send me an Email message letting me know that you posted a comment. Blogger does not retain your contact information, and anonymous comments are permitted.

DC

This promotion is held in conjunction with PFStock.com.
Note: H&R Block At Home software was provided for review by H&R Block. All opinions expressed are my own.

Saturday, January 23, 2010

H&R Block Giveaway Contest

The folks at H&R Block have provided me a copy of H&R Block At Home Deluxe (retail value $45) to give away to one of my lucky blog readers. H&R Block At Home was formerly known as TaxCut. This giveaway is for a new Deluxe (Tax Year 2009) version of H&R Block At Home which includes tax preparation for both Federal & State returns. That should be adequate for most people to complete their own taxes. Although the software includes free federal e-file, you may have to pay extra if you want to also efile a state return.

I have decided to hold a random drawing for the software. You can have up to three chances to win the prize:

1) Any reader can post a comment below describing your best tax or money saving tip.
2) For an additional entry, web site owners can link to this post, to let other know about this contest.
3) Lastly, my fellow bloggers can add PFStock to your blogroll (must be accessible from blog's main page) for one more entry in the drawing.

There is one more step. Since Blogger does not automatically collect contact information, and I allow anonymous comments, you will need to send me an Email message letting me know that you posted a comment, created a link to my post, and/or added PFStock your blogroll. (My E-mail address is in the sidebar of my blog.)

The drawing is limited to US residents. The software requires Windows XP, Windows Vista, Windows 7, or Mac OS X 10.4.11 or greater. The winner will be randomly picked from among the qualified entries received by February 12. I will contact the winner to get their mailing address, and I'll pick up the cost of postage. (Note that the software come in a sealed retail box, but it got a little bit crushed when it was mailed to me.) Good luck to everyone who enters!

DC

This promotion is held in conjunction with PFStock.com.
Note: H&R Block At Home software was provided for review by H&R Block. All opinions expressed are my own.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Do You Need 60X Annual Expenses to Retire Early?

Three years ago, I published a post titled The Millionaire's Rule of Thumb which presented an often quoted formula for expected net worth based on age and income. Many readers have expressed their dissatisfaction with the formula which is attributed to the book, The Millionaire Next Door by Thomas Stanley and William Danko. I predicted that someday a reader would develop a new and improved formula.

Three years to the day after I first posted that article, a reader who goes by the name of "dunkelblau" has indeed come up with a new and improved formula! Below is summary of dunkelblau's comments taken from this post, and from my very popular Net Worth Update post. (Note: Comments have been edited.)

I agree that wealth should be measured in units of time rather than dollars -- as in how long you can holdout without any wage income. But the correct denominator is annual expenses, not annual income. You're ready to retire when your networth divided by your annual expenses reaches 100 minus your age in years.

I don't blame you if you didn't catch that.  What the reader is saying is that if you take your net worth and divide that by annual expenses, that should equal 100 minus your age. The reader refers to net worth as the "numerator" and annual expenses as the "denominator". Reading on, dunkelblau continues by saying:

Investing well increases the numerator, but even investing badly still shrinks the denominator (assuming you don't borrow to invest). I think a conservative target number [for this quotient] is 100 minus your age in years. This way there's little chance of outliving your money.

So, as further clarification, another way to say this is that your net worth should equal your annual expenses times (100 minus your age):

Net Worth = Annual Expenses * (100 - age)

Lets take the example of a 40 year old who has saved $1 million for retirement. If this person can reduce expenditures to $40,000 per year, a common rule of thumb is that one can live off of the $1 million saved by assuming a conservative 4% safe withdrawal rate. See Resources for Early Retirement.

However, the "new and improved" wealth formula dictates that one needs (100 - age) times annual expenses to retire. In the case of a 40 year old, that would be 60X annual expenses, or a whopping $2.4 million for this individual to retire! Conversely, this person could further reduce their spending to less than $17,000 per year in order to live off of the $1 million. No wonder people assume that early retirement is impossible! The other curious thing about this new "formula" is that as one ages, the expected net worth actually goes down if annual expenses are kept constant. The one thing that I agree with dunkelblau about is that if you follow this formula, there is little chance of outliving your savings.

Anyway, my common sense tells me to take dunkelblau's formula with a grain of salt. In my opinion, this is definitely a new formula, but where is the improvement? What do the readers think?

DC

Monday, January 4, 2010

Update on Merck

Back in November, I wrote a post about buying Merck. I made this decision based on a stock analysis service called MarketClub. This is part of a website called INO.com (pronounced "I know") where I can research stocks, futures, or forex products. I recently used their Trade Triangle analysis to help me decide on buying Merck & Co (NYSE: MRK).

At the time of my post, Merck & Co (NYSE: MRK) was trading around $34, but it has increased significantly since my previous post. I had actually bought the stock about a month earlier than my post. Although I usually don't disclose the full details of my stock transaction on my blog, I thought that it would be instructive to share the details of this trade. For my own reference, this post will serve as a record of a trade that I got right.

Here is the summary of my trade: On 10/12/09, I bought 300 shares of MRK at 32.99. On 12/24/09, I sold 300 shares of MRK at 36.76. As I mentioned, the opening transaction was based on technical analysis done using Trade Triangles from MarketClub portion of the INO.com website. The closing transaction is due to a stop order that I placed after the stock started to move up. The idea behind a stop order is to protect gains from a potential decline in the stock price. However, volatility will sometimes cause one to be "stopped out" prematurely. That is one danger of placing a stop order.

On a percentage basis, this trade was not as successful as my investment in Bare Escentuals (NASDAQ: BARE ). Nevertheless, it still represents an 11.4% gain over the period. I don't usually compare my trades with the S&P 500 index, but I know that a lot of investors consider that to be an important measure of success. For the record, the S&P rose 4.6% over same period. The difference between my return and the S&P is 6.8%, and is referred to by some analysis as "alpha". There are entire websites that exist for the sole purpose of seeking positive alpha.

From a personal standpoint, I am always happy to rack up a good gain regardless of whether it generates a positive alpha. I also can't argue with success, and while I was at first very skeptical of technical analysis tools like Trade Triangles, I have had good success with INO.com, so I intend to continue using this technique in my investing.

DC

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

H&R Block At Home (formerly TaxCut)

Last week, I received a copy of H&R Block At Home (that is the new name for TaxCut) tax preparation software in the mail. I have noticed that if you register your copy of either TaxCut or TurboTax with the manufacturer, they will automatically send you a CD-ROM with their software for the following year. H&R Block did this again. If you get one of these package in the mail, don't be fooled into thinking that you are getting something for nothing. Usually, you aren't aware of the cost of the software until you insert the CD-ROM into your computer and read through the fine print. This time, H&R Block was a little more transparent about the pricing. It printed "Only $34.95" on the front of the DVD case that it came in. But, for most people the $34.95 version of the software will not be adequate for their needs. Expect to spend at least $45 if you plan on filing a state tax return.

The H&R Block At Home (formerly TaxCut) CD-ROM that I received in the mail did have a $10 rebate coupon for purchases from certain stores (specifically Amazon.com, Best Buy, Target, Office Depot, Microcenter, Staples, and Fry's Electronics). So, it usually ends up being cheaper for me to buy this tax software through a retail store rather than installing the version I received in the mail. In the past, I've noticed that some retailers offer a free movie DVD with purchase of Taxcut, so I will usually hold out until I see a similar deal.

As a side note, H&R Block used to offer a rebate for certain financial software (e.g., Microsoft Money) with the purchase of TaxCut. But, MS Money has been discontinued by Microsoft. The 2008 version (Microsoft Money Plus) was the last planned version of this financial software. (I might consider converting everything over to Intuit's Quicken in the future.)

As far as tax software is concerned, I have always used the Premium "desktop" version of the tax software, which includes the state version of the tax preparation software. This year it looks like H&R Block At Home has adopted the TurboTax naming calling their product "Deluxe" rather than Premium. An online version is available for both TurboTax and TaxCut, which I have not used. I also haven't tried using e-file yet, but I might consider it this year.

One last thing that I wanted to bring up is that TurboTax is offering to answer tax questions for free. Here is a link to the Intuit offer from TurboTax. My main criticism that I have about this offer is that it is only good until the end of January 2010. I would guess that the average person doesn't even get started with their taxes until February or March. By that time, they will be too late to take advantage of this free advice.

So, what tax software do you use?

Note to Commenters: If you represent a company such as Intuit, H&R Block, Microsoft, etc., please leave your contact information or send me an Email (my Email address is listed in the sidebar) to let me know that you left a comment. If I cannot determine that your comment is authentic, it will be deleted.

DC

Monday, December 14, 2009

Tax Questions Answered

It is that time of year again when you should start thinking about your 2009 taxes. I have been using computer tax software to prepare my taxes since 1996, and I plan to do so again this year. Once again, the two main contenders are TurboTax and H&R Block At Home (formerly known as TaxCut). I have not yet decided which of these software products I will use, although I have been using the H&R Block product for the last several years.

Anyway, the point of this post is to mention that TurboTax is once again offering to answer personal tax questions for free. They have IRS-Enrolled Agents and tax preparers available to help you with your tax question. To get started, you need to submit your question through their website: www.freetaxquestion.com. A tax advisor will research your question and give you a phone call to discuss your tax issue. Questions about this offer should be directed to TurboTax; contact Alexandra Cuccias (Alexandra@outcastpr.com) with any questions.

There are a couple of catches to the offer. First, it appears you that can only submit a question between the hours of 8am and 5pm PST, Monday to Friday. Second, this free offer is only valid through January 31, 2010. So, you need to be organized enough to know what tax question you want to ask before then. My criticism here is that the average person doesn't even get started with their taxes until February or March. By that time, it will be too late to take advantage of this free service. After January 31, TurboTax will charge $23.95 for this advice. In the past, H&R Block had a similar free offer, but I have not heard if they will be offering that service again this tax year

Getting back to tax preparation software, I have usually chosen TaxCut because it is generally cheaper than TurboTax. Also, I have usually been able to get a free copy of Microsoft Money Deluxe with the purchase of TaxCut. However, MS Money has been discontinued by Microsoft, and H&R Block is no longer offering any free financial software with the purchase of their tax software. Some retailers are offering a free copy of Quicken Starter Edition 2010 with the purchase of TurboTax, but that version of Quicken would be too underpowered for my circumstances.

Note to Commenters: If you represent a company such as Intuit, H&R Block, Microsoft, etc., please leave your contact information or send me an Email (my Email address is listed in the sidebar) to let me know that you left a comment. If I cannot determine that your comment is authentic, it will be deleted.

DC

Friday, December 4, 2009

Money Market Rates 12/09

Here are the latest money market interest rates of the banks that I've been tracking on my blog. Note that these rates are sorted by APY, and represent institutions that I have accounts at, or have otherwise mentioned in my blog:

1.95% Shorebank Direct Online Savings
1.59% Ally Bank Online Savings
1.35% HSBCDirect Online Savings
1.30% ING Direct Orange Savings
1.15% Citibank Ultimate Money
1.15% Citibank Ultimate Savings
1.10% Umbrellabank Pot O' Gold Money Market
0.55% Western FCU Money Market
0.53% Chase Online Savings
0.50% E*TRADE Complete Savings
0.06% PayPal Money Market*

NOTES: *The PayPal Money Market fund is NOT FDIC insured.
Rates are believed to be accurate as of 12/3/09. I did not include banks that had special, or introductory rates in the list because they are not ongoing interest rates. I am also not including non-liquid accounts such as CD's in the list.

So, there is the latest list. Please let me know if you know of any higher interest rates.

DC

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Trade Triangle: Merck (MRK)

A couple months ago, I wrote about making money by using a stock analysis service called MarketClub. This is part of a website called INO.com (pronounced "I know") where I can research stocks, futures, or forex products. I recently used their Trade Triangle analysis to help me decide on buying Merck & Co (NYSE: MRK).

Over the past several months, I have been looking for individual stocks that I can get back into. I used MarketClub to get an instant analysis of Merck, and the results are shown below.



This analysis shows that Merck is now in a strong uptrend, and that this is an ideal time to buy the stock. MarketClub's Smart Scan analysis calls this situation a "Trade Triangle" with a +100 being the highest possible score. This kind of technical analysis is great for trend traders who like the "red-light, green-light" simplicity of investing. So, I bought some shares of MRK based on this information.

With a very strong gain yesterday, I have already made more money on Merck than what a MarketClub subscription costs for one year. Note that Trade Triangles are strictly a technical analysis tool. I don't use the MarketClub analysis to tell me what to buy. I rely more on fundamental characteristics like Earnings Per Share (EPS) and PE ratios to decide on which stock to buy. But, I use MarketClub to tell me when to buy. I now have a stop order in place to help protect my gains.

Another comment that I have is that MarketClub does not require you to download and install any software. This is good because you can access your subscription from pretty much any computer. The downside is that your access speed will be limited by your Internet connection. In other words, MarketClub is not the fastest analysis tool that I've ever seen. But, it is pretty good considering that the software runs on their servers and not your computer.

You can subscribe to MarketClub for $150 per quarter or $449 for a year. You will have complete access to many of the investment tools available on INO.com. There is a 30-day risk-free trial period in which you can try them out. They will ask for a credit card when you sign up, but you have the right to cancel within the first 30 days and get all of your money back. So, what do you have to lose?



Another free tool that I utilize to help me keep on top of my portfolio is called Trend Analysis. Trend Analysis is a daily email analysis tool that gives me insight into exactly what my portfolio is doing. For investors who are following many stock symbols, MarketClub sends a daily Email for every symbol in your portfolio.

The links above takes you to a screen where you can get your first stock (future or option) symbol analyzed at no cost to you. After you sign up, you can easily add more symbols to get a daily update, which I find very helpful.

DC

Disclaimer: This material is for general information only. It is not intended as an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any security or fund.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Countrywide SavingsLink Revisited

I first wrote about the Countrywide Bank SavingsLink account in 2007. This account offered interest rates as high as 5.5% at one point. It featured free online transfers between linked external bank accounts. Countrywide was acquired by Bank of America early last year, but the final merging of accounts was not completed until September 2009.

The SavingsLink account is no longer offered by Bank of America, and has been replaced by the "Growth Money Market Savings SL" account. According to my last statement, I am getting an APY of 1.23% in my account, but I think that the rate varies based on account balance. I was not able to find a rate sheet for this particular account on Bank of America's website.

Bank of America's Money Market Savings SL account does not have the same transfer features that the SavingsLink account did. The accounts that I had previously linked to my SavingsLink account were no longer available. When I try to transfer funds to or from Bank of America, it asks me to sign up for SafePass which applies an extra level of security (and complexity) to online transfers. SafePass requires a cell phone, and it will send a 6-digit, one-time passcode as a text message (regular text message fees will apply) to your mobile phone. If you don't have a cell phone, they can set you up with a standalone SafePass card for a one time fee of $19.99.

According to their service agreement, BofA charges a fee of $3 for each outbound transfer. There is no charge for inbound transfers. But there are transfer limits of $3,000 per day or $6,000 per month. I remember transferring as much as $25,000 at one time into my SavingsLink account.  I called Bank of America to ask a customer service representative about the reason for these limits, but I only got a vague explanation to the effect that certain customers may have higher limits depending depending on their relationship with the bank.

One other major change is that unlike Countrywide Bank, Bank of America has branches everywhere. Whereas physical deposits to Countrywide Bank had to be mailed to processing facility in Texas, you can make deposit to Bank of America at nearly any branch. At this point, I figure that if I need to transfer money in or out, it might be easier to just go to the branch.

I am no longer tracking the SavingsLink account in my regular money market rates posts because it is no longer available to new depositors.

DC

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Annoying Phone Calls

I didn't sleep well last night. We received a couple of annoying phone calls that woke me up at around 3:30 am, and again at 5:30 am. My caller ID tells me that the caller's phone number is 408-651-8179, and it is identified as either "TOWER SOFT", "OUT OF AREA" OR "UNAVAILABLE". Searching the web, it seems like I am not the only person whose sleep was disturbed last night. See Caller Complaints, 800 Notes, and Who Calls Me? I found dozens of complaints from last night alone on these websites.

Like me, many of the recipients of these phone calls are on the Do-Not-Call Registry. In most cases the phone rings two or three times, but there is nobody on the other end when they answer. A phone call like that would be frustrating during the daytime, but it is highly abusive when they call and wake you up. What can you do about these types of annoying phone calls?

DC

Monday, October 5, 2009

Can An Established CD Interest Rate Be Reduced?

Can a bank reduce the interest rate of an established certificate of deposit (CD) account? I learned the hard way that the answer is YES. Let me be clear that I am not talking about a bank changing the interest rate at the CD maturity date, but actually lowering the rate during the original term of the CD. This happened to me, and it turns out to be all perfectly legal and approved by the FDIC.

Readers of my blog may remember that I wrote about receiving a free HDTV for opening a CD account at Irwin Union Bank. I deposited $20,000 into an 11-month CD with an interest rate of 1.96% in July. Then on September 18th, Irwin Union Bank was closed by the FDIC with its accounts and assets transferred to First Financial Bank. Subsequent to the Irwin Union Bank closing, the acquiring bank (First Financial) sent me a letter saying that my interest rate had been reduced to 1.5% for the remainder of my CD's term.

Does that seem right to you? On the FDIC webpage about the failed bank (Irwin Union Bank), there is a long-winded document called a Purchase and Assumption Agreement. Reading through the FDIC gobbledygook, I came upon this paragraph explaining how the assuming bank (First Financial) may change the interest rate on its CD acquired from Irwin Union Bank:

2.2 Interest on Deposit Liabilities. The Assuming Bank agrees that, from and after Bank Closing, it will accrue and pay interest on Deposit liabilities assumed pursuant to Section 2.1 at a rate(s) it shall determine; provided, that for non-transaction Deposit liabilities such rate(s) shall not be less than the lowest rate offered by the Assuming Bank to its depositors for non-transaction deposit accounts. The Assuming Bank shall permit each depositor to withdraw, without penalty for early withdrawal, all or any portion of such depositor's Deposit, whether or not the Assuming Bank elects to pay interest in accordance with any deposit agreement formerly existing between the Failed Bank and such depositor; and further provided, that if such Deposit has been pledged to secure an obligation of the depositor or other party, any withdrawal thereof shall be subject to the terms of the agreement governing such pledge. The Assuming Bank shall give notice to such depositors as provided in Section 5.3 of the rate(s) of interest which it has determined to pay and of such withdrawal rights.


I was following along up until the phrase "and further provided"... In any case, the net result of all this is that although I have not lost any principal or interest accrued before the failure of Irwin Union, the future interest rate has been reduced. The FDIC has also provided that a depositor could withdraw their funds without a penalty for early withdrawal. From my previous post, I mentioned that for the free TV offer, "The penalty for early withdrawal is substantial -- $500 plus 91 days of interest. That works out to about $600 if you need get your money out early."

I called my new bank, First Financial, to quiz them on this issue. They confirmed that my CD interest rate has been reduced, and that there would be no further reduction of the interest rate for the remainder of the term. And, I could withdraw my money anytime before maturity with no penalty. When I asked about the HDTV set, they said that there would be no penalty to keep that either.

So, what should I do? I could withdraw my money and keep the HDTV without penalty. That would work out to a pretty good equivalent interest rate. Or, I could keep my money in the CD account since 1.5% is still better than most money market or rates for a similar term CD nowadays.

What would you do in this situation?

DC

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Money Market Rates 10/09

Here are the latest money market interest rates of the banks that I've been tracking on my blog. Note that these rates are sorted by APY, and represent institutions that I have accounts at, or have otherwise mentioned in my blog:

2.15% Shorebank Direct Online High-Yield Savings
1.35% HSBCDirect Online Savings
1.35% Umbrellabank Pot O' Gold Money Market
1.30% ING Direct Orange Savings
1.25% Citibank Ultimate Money
1.25% Citibank Ultimate Savings
0.75% Chase (formerly WaMu) Online Savings
0.65% Western FCU Money Market
0.60% E*TRADE Complete Savings
0.05% PayPal Money Market*

NOTES: *The PayPal Money Market fund is NOT FDIC insured.
Rates are believed to be accurate as of 10/1/09. I did not include banks that had special, or introductory rates in the list because they are not ongoing interest rates. I am also not including non-liquid accounts such as CD's in the list.

The SavingsLink account is no longer offered by Bank of America, and has been replaced by the Growth Money Market Saving account. Guaranty Bank has been closed by the FDIC, and was taken over by BBVA Compass. I will no longer be tracking these accounts here.

In my last update, I mentioned Irwin Union Bank which was offering a free 22" HD LCD TV or a Flip MinoHD Mini Camcorder to open a new bank account. Unfortunately, Irwin Union Bank has also been closed, and taken over by First Financial Bank.

So, there is the latest list. I intend to write a couple of follow up posts about the recent bank closing, and how changes may affect your accounts.

DC